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“North Korea: Coming out of Seclusion”
By
By Rawlein G. Soberano, Ph.D. |
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Korea consists of two political units: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), divided by a ceasefire line at north latitude 38. Korea’s total land area is 85,621 square miles, about 55% of which is North Korea, approximately the size of New York. The US trade embargo with North Korea was partially lifted on June 19, 2000.
About 5,000 years ago, Korea was called Choson, the “land of the Morning Calm.” The modern name of Korea comes from the Koryo dynasty (918-1392 A.D.). It means “high and clear,” an appropriate description of the rugged mountains and clear rushing springs that characterize Korea’s terrain. Korea’s relief is dominated by mountains. They separate the Korean peninsula from China, and run down the length of eastern Korea, from the Hamgyong Mountains in the North, to the Taebaek Mountains that extend from North to South Korea.
The Korean War resulted in the South gaining about 1,500 square miles of territory after an extensive loss of life and property. Seoul was nearly leveled, and cropland through S. Korea was ravaged. N. Korea was almost totally ruined as well, with its population reduced by more than one and a half to two million, or nearly 12% of the total. In 1972 the two Koreas jointly announced to the world that they would open dialogue for peaceful reunification. However, during the 20 years that followed, there was tension between them and talks progressed at a slow pace, sometimes with intervals of years between peace talks.
The economic picture in the north is the reverse of that in the south. N. Korea’s economy grew rapidly because of available resources and the communist government’s ability to marshal the people to work. When the economy became more complex, the government’s rigid control over the entire economy lowered efficiency. In the mid-1980s, N. Korea changed its policy to accept joint ventures with foreign companies. By 1989, the first joint venture with China, a marine fishery products enterprise, was achieved.
N. Korea produces machinery for domestic industries, agriculture and the armed forces. Metal-cutting machines, tractors, weapons and army vehicles are some examples of its products. The quality of its machines is poor, forcing the country to import advanced machinery and equipment from certain western countries. About 85% of the important mineral deposits of the peninsula are found in the north. The most important ones include coal, iron ore, lead, zinc, tungsten and fluorite.
About 80% of N. Korea is mountainous (61% is forest). Most of its farms (16% of the land is cultivated) are located in the plains of the western region. After World War II, land was redistributed to the peasants. This reduced the size of the already small farms. After the Korean War, the drive for collective farms was intensified, and in the 1980s, N. Korea had nearly 4,000 cooperatives or state-owned farms. Fishing also plays an important role in the economy, and the state has invested in deep-sea fishing “mother” ships and trawlers, which work the waters of the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan.
Traveling to Pyongyang today, one sees a burgeoning entrepreneurial activity all around. It is a new experience to many residents. The chance to make a profit is one of the many changes in N. Korea that are gradually but thoroughly remaking this tightly controlled country, following closely on the footsteps of China.
The government remains an oppressive dictatorship. Its people are cowed and impoverished, its foreign affairs prickly and belligerent, its leader (Kim Jon IL) is a secretive cult figure with missiles and a history of unpredictability. In his capacity as Chairman of the National Defense Commission, he is the de facto head of state. There is growing evidence that N. Korea is changing. It has made substantial progress in a remarkably short time toward transforming itself. Five years ago, it was dying, seemingly destined to collapse on its own policy of juche, which basically means self-reliance. Its foreign relations are restricted to communist or politically non-aligned countries, so it tries to be self-sufficient. It is the quasi-religious core of this government. The only question was how many of its 22 million people had starved to death in famines that began in the mid-1990s. Confounding the experts, N. Korea made quiet concessions to change, often unannounced or veiled in the rhetorical aura of perfecting socialism, e.g., United States, Japan and S. Korea. It opened its locked doors to a trickle of international charities and their foreign workers. It began sending diplomatic invitations quietly.
It got some big fish to accept these invitations, e.g., Kim Dae Jung of S. Korea, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State. Even Bill Clinton was mulling a trip when his term expired. Then came Junichiro Koizumi of Japan who laid plans for official diplomatic recognition. European countries began opening full- or part-time embassies, joining Sweden, Russia and China. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are returning. About 100 foreign aid workers now live in Pyongyang.
Recently (Oct. 3-5), Asst. Secretary of State James Kelly led a US delegation but sought to minimize publicly about his 3-day visit to Pyongyang. He noted that there were “no decisions on additional meetings at this time nor did any side nor did either side expect any” soon. He met with Kim Yong Nam, the president of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the second highest official in the country. The meeting was described as a courtesy call. The four other meetings were with lower-ranking officials.
Subtle changes are everywhere in Pyongyang. The broad avenues seem eerily empty, but there are more cars than before. Young women who guide traffic at big intersections are actually busy with the growing number of cars honking their horns to claim the right of way. The cars are used Japanese vehicles with the steering wheel on the right. It is a sign of a tiny but growing affluence.
The government tested a policy of restraint in foreign affairs. It pledged in 1994 to stop its nuclear program, and the US is the first to admit that it has no evidence that N. Korea has broken this pledge. After spooking northeastern Asia by shooting a Taepodung missile on its long-range missile launches and has unilaterally extended the freeze twice. Japan promised to move towards diplomatic recognition, and a hefty aid program of compensation for Japan’s wartime occupation.
The food situation has improved with some better harvest years and a growing international aid. Though many still go hungry and malnutrition claims some of the elderly and very young, few people are starving to death. The government accepted its failed economic structure and is prepared to change and is cautiously planning for it. Delegations went out to study economic development projects in at least 20 countries. Last July, Mr. Kim made sweeping revisions of the economy, ordering that workers who produce more be paid more and embracing the “profit motive.”
These changes were complemented by currency reforms, adjustments in land ownership rules and invitations to foreign businesses. N. Korea is planning industrial parks or free-trade zones. It has begun cleaning land mines to connect a road and rail line to S. Korea. It has generated an immediate increase in entrepreneurial activity from the people, e.g., selling ice cream on a stick from a sidewalk cart. Even the bureaucrats are now motivated to go to work and be more productive.
How long wills this change last, when for so long everything was at a standstill? Traveling to Pyongyang is like entering a time machine. Much of the city was assembled with Soviet parts, machinery, construction help and the artistic influence of its exaggerated socialist-style statuary. It is now a race between repair and deterioration. The old Soviet equipment is breaking down. Factories are quiet for lack of parts and power. Farmland is exhausted, in need of fertilizer and a few fallow years.
Change is difficult to gauge because of human secrecy. This is still a watched and suspicious society. This may be the only aid-recipient state in the world where there is so little interaction between foreigners and locals. They are never invited to a Korean home, and rarely converse about such daily matters as living conditions or personal relationships, much less about politics.
Change does not become visible and widespread overnight. As a matter of fact, the face of this bleak society gives little clue to a new spirit. Mornings in Pyongyang start with melancholy notes coming out of loudspeakers to awaken the city. “The Song of the Great Kim IL Sung” is not a call to hopeful expectations but rather a summons to another day of resigned toil. In the evenings, residents linger outside. There is no rush to go home to a drab, cramped apartment. At a city park where families quietly, there is more murmur than talk, subdued and devoid of laughter.
Amidst all these, a foreigner never sees signs of resentment. There is an extremely strong groundswell of patriotism and trust in the government. Everyone is brought up with the understanding that the country is under siege and foreigner forces are waiting at the doorstep. The irony is that N. Koreans (mainly one-third of the population) have been saved by these foreign forces through food programs. Its current economic initiatives will surely fail without substantial foreign economic aid.
No one knows how far these changes will go. Foreign observers are impressed that government officials talk about further reforms. They are intrigued that the government enrolled several officials in a program to learn about disarmament. But let us not be overly optimistic and enthusiastic about these changes. N. Korea has a long history of stop-and-go policies. Who knows where the wind will blow next from what will come out of Mr. Kim’s head.
Rawlein G. Soberano, Ph.D.
President Asian American
Business Roundtable
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